Main menu Utility Navigation Penn-trained ‘Superforecasters’ Outpredict Pundits in 2016 Elections According to Professor , the quality of the 2016 presidential debates have been disappointing to say the least, but could be improved by applying the methods used in forecasting tournaments—where predictions are scored against actual outcomes. “You don’t see candidates vying for the distinction of being the most accurate forecasters; you see them vying for the position of being the more adroit demagogues,” says Tetlock, the Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Democracy and Citizenship. “The forecasting tournament’s scientific approach and probability estimation would be a more civilized way to figure out whose policies are going to lead to which consequences.” Tetlock and his wife, , the
来源(Source From): http://www.upenn.edu/spotlights/penn-trained-superforecasters-outpredict-pundits-2016-elections